On the last trading day before the holiday, A-shares welcomed an "epic surge."
On September 30th, several stock indices set the largest single-day gains in history: the Shanghai Composite Index closed up 8.06%, surpassing 3,300 points; the Shenzhen Component Index closed up 10.67%, returning to ten thousand points; the ChiNext Index, STAR 50, and Beijing Stock Exchange 50 Index performed even better, with respective increases of 15.36%, 17.88%, and 22.84%.
At the opening of the morning session, it took only 35 minutes for the turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets to break through 1 trillion yuan, setting the fastest record for a trillion-yuan turnover in history. The combined turnover for the entire day in both markets reached 2.59 trillion yuan, surpassing the 2.36 trillion yuan on May 28, 2015, and刷新ing the historical record for the largest single-day trading volume.
In terms of individual stocks, more than 700 stocks in both markets hit their upper limit, with 5,336 stocks closing in the green, and the proportion of rising stocks reached as high as 99.66%, marking the day with the highest number of stock increases in the history of A-shares.
As the "bull market standard-bearer," the securities sector saw a comprehensive rise. Among the 51 listed securities firms, except for Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities, which were suspended, the remaining 49 securities firms' stock prices all hit their upper limit.
Advertisement
In the morning, due to the influx of a large number of users, many securities trading software were overwhelmed, leading to trading congestion, login failures, and inability to display data normally. Some investors encountered problems with bank-to-broker transfers, preventing successful transfers.
It is reported that local securities regulatory bureaus have been issuing notices to securities firms. Among the requirements, securities firms are allowed to increase the stress testing of information systems in conjunction with business changes. The order throughput rate and transaction peak throughput rate of important information systems should be more than three times the historical peak, and the network bandwidth during trading hours should be more than twice the peak usage of the past year.
The valuation lowland is further repaired.
The massive surge in A-shares has also driven the performance of funds to explode.Intraday ETFs Trigger a Surge of Limit-Ups. According to Wind statistics, on September 30th, 30 science and innovation-themed ETFs saw a 20% increase, with as many as 348 ETFs experiencing gains over 10%.
Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF recorded a transaction volume of 25.8 billion yuan, setting a new historical high. In addition, products such as Huaxia Science and Innovation 50 ETF and Yifangda ChiNext ETF also set new historical single-day transaction records.
Regarding today's rare market surge, many industry insiders exclaimed "never seen this before" and "it's too crazy."
A fund manager lamented, "In the past, it was just a certain sector that was rising, but now the entire A-share market is soaring, which I have never seen before. Such a rise is hard to explain; it might just be that the policies have exceeded everyone's expectations."
"Today's market surge is a continuation of last week's strong performance," said Wanjia Fund, which believes that the A-share market may have reached an important turning point and officially entered a reversal and upward phase.
According to analysis, under the introduction of multiple policy benefits, investor expectations last week underwent a rapid and fierce reversal, leading to a significant market rally. The situation over the weekend further fermented, driving more funds into the market and pushing the indices up significantly on Monday, with the previous valuation lows being further repaired.
On September 29th, the central bank announced several financial policies to support the real estate market. For new home loans, the minimum down payment ratio for the first and second homes was uniformly reduced to no less than 15%; meanwhile, commercial banks were required to complete the batch adjustment of existing mortgage loan interest rates before October 31st. In addition, cities such as Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen also announced adjustments to housing purchase restrictions. The stabilization of housing prices is of great significance to the stable development of the macroeconomy.
Morgan Stanley Fund stated that with the implementation of favorable policies for the real estate market, consumption, and stock market, the A-share market's upward trend can continue, with the renminbi maintaining an appreciation trend against the US dollar, and long-term government bond rates also continuing to rise. It is expected that the fourth quarter will be a period of dense policy implementation, with fiscal policy expected to gain momentum, and A-shares will continue to receive policy catalysts.
The technology growth track is expected to take the lead.
For the recent A-shares, those who missed the opportunity are anxious, those who fear heights are watching, and a large amount of capital is rushing into the market. The excessively fast and hasty rise has also raised investors' concerns about the future market."Under the recent intensive efforts on the policy front, the domestic economic fundamentals are expected to show a continuous improvement in the positive trend. It is anticipated that after the National Day holiday, the risk preference in the A-share market is likely to remain at a relatively high level." Looking ahead to October, Golden Eagle Fund estimates that the market may continue the valuation recovery trend, and the balance sheet repair will promote the marginal stabilization of the economy, boosting market confidence.
Golden Eagle Fund points out that since the release of a package of policies on September 24th, market risk preference has rebounded rapidly, with both domestic and foreign capital flowing in collectively, and the entire industry has seen a valuation repair, with the return of the money-making effect, "As we are about to enter October, considering that the timing and intensity of this policy shift are significantly beyond market expectations, market sentiment is expected to remain high, and the short term is still in the policy fermentation period, with some desensitization to macroeconomic data."
"After the sharp rise in stock indices, the valuation level of the entire A-share market is still relatively low, and it is recommended to pay attention to the structural prosperity direction benefiting from policies." Golden Eagle Fund warns that the influence of the external environment is marginally decreasing, but the critical period of the U.S. election still has a significant impact on Sino-American relations and policies, and appropriate attention should be paid after the middle of the month, especially for the key industries in the game between the two sides, it is necessary to prepare in advance.
Market sentiment is at a high level, and under the high emotion, the market is still in a bullish range for the time being, but the overly rapid rise to a certain extent overdraws the space for a comprehensive rise, and the market is inevitably differentiated. In this process, the technology growth track is expected to have an advantage, mainly for four reasons:
First, for the upward range of the market, from historical performance, the growth style has a higher probability of leading continuously. In recent years, the valuation level of the growth sector relative to the value style has been compressed to a historically low position. With the market reversal, it is expected to enter a long-term recovery cycle.
Second, if we conduct an attribution analysis of the market, the short-term fundamental changes are not actually significant. The main reason is the policy-driven investor expectation reversal and valuation repair. The root cause of the market is the excessive undervaluation caused by extreme pessimism in the past. Therefore, the tracks that were the most pessimistic and had the largest decline in the market, such as new energy, biomedicine, TMT, etc., have a larger rebound space.
Third, usually, after a large-scale rise in the index attracts capital inflow, the market will have a period of structural trend, and the sectors with a clear fundamental main line will begin to lead the market. Currently, from the perspective of industrial trends and time catalysis, the direction of new quality productive forces under the intelligentization trend, including AI consumer electronics, intelligent driving, intelligent robots, and other fields, has a larger space and a longer view. The new energy field also has opportunities in areas where the supply and demand relationship is gradually improving, and the related sectors also have more event-driven catalysts in the short term.
Fourth, after the capital gradually returns to rationality from impulsiveness, it will focus more on the fundamental situation. The prosperity index can best gather the consensus of capital. Currently, the prosperity index of the technology sector is dominant. From January to August, among the profits of industrial enterprises, 29 out of 41 major industrial categories saw year-on-year profit growth. High-tech manufacturing is still an important engine for growth. The manufacturing of spacecraft and launch vehicles, intelligent vehicle equipment manufacturing, and lithium-ion battery manufacturing industries saw faster profit growth, with year-on-year increases of 20.3%, 26.2%, and 29.9%, respectively. The manufacturing of semiconductor device special equipment, sensitive components and sensors, and optoelectronic device manufacturing industries saw year-on-year profit increases of 14.5%, 42.9%, and 130.6%, respectively.
Leave a Comment