Triple Witching Day: S&P Hits Record High, Then Dips; Nvidia Plunges 8%, Market Cap Shrinks

The number of initial unemployment claims in the United States fell last week but remained higher than expected, with new housing starts and building permits in May unexpectedly dropping to their lowest levels since June 2020. The Philadelphia Fed's June manufacturing index also significantly underperformed expectations, suggesting a gradual cooling of the labor market and the U.S. economy.

Financial markets still anticipate two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, with bets on a rate cut starting in September slightly receding but still close to 60%. In 2026, the hawkish voting member and Minneapolis Fed Chairman Kashkari stated that wage growth remains too high, and it will take a year or two for inflation to drop to 2%.

Despite the UK's inflation rate falling to the target of 2% in May, the Bank of England maintained interest rates but hinted that more policymakers might support a rate cut, with traders' bets on a rate cut starting in August rising to 50%. The Norges Bank stated it would not cut rates before next year, while the Swiss National Bank cut rates for the second time this year.

Analysts have pointed out that the dovish sentiment actually expressed by the Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank's rate cut again have led to expectations for the Federal Reserve's first rate cut to be brought forward. Furthermore, it confirms that global interest rates have already peaked, and central banks in countries like the United States will cut rates in the short term.

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S&P opened at a new high before turning down, and the Nasdaq halted its seven-day streak of setting new highs, with Nvidia rising 3.8% to a new high before closing down more than 3.5%.

On Thursday, June 20th, U.S. stocks showed a divergent trend throughout the day. AI and chip stocks like Nvidia surged and then retreated, leading the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to turn down at midday, with the S&P 500 falling as much as 0.6% and the Nasdaq falling more than 1%. In the morning, the S&P 500 opened at a historical high, rising as much as 0.3% and briefly breaking through 5,500 points, with the S&P technology sector reaching a new high at the start of trading. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, on the other hand, opened low and rose, with the highest increase of nearly 400 points or 1%, breaking through the 39,000-point mark, and ultimately closing up about 300 points, leading the major indices.

As of the close, the S&P 500 fell for the second day in eight days and moved away from new highs, with the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 also moving away from new highs after setting records for seven consecutive days. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose for three consecutive days to a four-week high, while the Russell 2000 small-cap index stopped its two-day rise:

The S&P 500 closed down 13.86 points, a decrease of 0.25%, at 5,473.17 points. The Dow Jones closed up 299.90 points, a gain of 0.77%, at 39,134.76 points. The Nasdaq closed down 140.64 points, a decrease of 0.79%, at 17,721.59 points.

The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.8% away from new highs, and the Nasdaq Technology Market Capitalization-Weighted Index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of technology stocks in the Nasdaq 100, fell 1.5% away from new highs. The Russell 2000 small-cap index fell 0.4%, and the "fear index" VIX rose more than 6%, breaking through 13.

AI and chip stocks led the S&P index and Nasdaq to turn down, with the Dow Jones closing up 300 points to a four-week high.Analysis suggests that the U.S. stock market is poised for a cumulative increase this week, driven by the AI boom and market hopes for an imminent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. However, concerns are growing over the lack of market breadth and the irrationality of the recent gains, which are concentrated in technology, chip, and AI stocks. Additionally, with U.S. stock indices in an overbought state and Friday being the "triple witching hour" when derivatives contracts linked to stocks, indices, and futures expire, indices are turning downwards.

Star tech stocks experienced mixed performances. "Metaverse" Meta rose by 0.4%, Google A increased by 0.7%, both recovering from a one-week low; Amazon gained 1.8%, moving away from a two-week low; Tesla fell by 1.8%, further distancing from a seven-week high; Netflix dropped by about 1%, detaching from a two-and-a-half-year high; Apple fell over 2% to a one-week low, consecutively two days away from its all-time high, with a market capitalization of $3.215 trillion, ranking third in the U.S. stock market; Microsoft's decline narrowed to 0.1%, falling away from new highs for two consecutive days, with a market capitalization of $3.31 trillion, surpassing Nvidia to become the largest in the U.S. stock market.

Chip stocks, which had performed well in the previous two trading days, started high and ended low. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell by 2.7%, moving away from its historical high, and the industry ETF SOXX also fell by 2.7%, detaching from its peak. Nvidia rose by 3.8% before turning down by 4.5%, effectively plunging 8% from its intraday high, and ultimately closed down by 3.5%, moving away from its historical high, with a market capitalization of $3.217 trillion, ranking second in the U.S. stock market; Nvidia's double long ETF rose by 7.6% before turning down by 7%, also detaching from new highs; Broadcom fell by 3.8%, moving away from its peak for two consecutive days; ARM dropped by 7.7%, Qualcomm fell by over 5%, TSMC and Lam Research in the U.S. stock market fell by over 2%, Applied Materials fell by over 3%, Micron Technology fell by 6%, all moving away from historical highs; however, AMD rose by 4.6%, detaching from a one-month low, with an intraday rise of nearly 8%, marking the largest increase in four months, and Intel rose by 1.6% before closing down.

AI concept stocks also led the decline in the Nasdaq. CrowdStrike fell by nearly 2% for two consecutive days, moving away from new highs; Oracle fell by over 1%, detaching from new highs; SoundHound.ai fell by 1%; BigBear.ai fell by 7%; C3.ai fell by over 4%; Snowflake fell by nearly 1%, approaching a 17-month low; Palantir fell by 1%; Adobe nearly erased a 2% gain, hovering around a three-month high; Dell rose by 8% before turning down by 0.7%; Super Micro Computer rose by 10% before turning down by 0.3%; Accenture opened up by 11% before closing up by over 7% to a four-week high.

In terms of news, Musk stated that Dell and Super Micro Computer will provide servers to help his AI startup xAI develop supercomputers. IT service provider Accenture's latest quarterly report fell short of expectations, but disclosed that Q3 generative AI new bookings exceeded $900 million, with annual revenue growth also expected to be higher than anticipated. AI startup Anthropic, supported by Google and Amazon, released the latest version of the Claude AI model. Oracle will invest over $1 billion in AI and cloud computing in Spain. Piper Sandler is optimistic about AMD's prospects for the second half of the year and lists it as a preferred large-cap stock. Reports indicate that TSMC is exploring new AI chip packaging technologies, allowing more groups of chips to be placed on a single wafer.知情人士称，苹果AI与百度、阿里、百川智能等研发AI模型的中国公司谈合作，目前尚无公开回应。

Chinese concept stocks followed the U.S. stock market's decline. ETF KWEB fell by 0.6%, CQQQ fell by 1.3%, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index (HXC) fell by 1%, losing the 6,000 point integer position, falling for four consecutive days and setting a two-month low.

Among popular stocks, JD.com fell by 1.3%, Baidu fell by 2.3%, Pinduoduo nearly recovered a 1.4% decline. Alibaba fell by 0.2%, Tencent ADR rose by over 1%, Bilibili rose by over 5%, NIO fell by over 2%, XPeng Motors fell by over 2% before closing flat, Li Auto fell by nearly 2%.

The retail investor favorite GameStop rose by 3.6% on Thursday, still trading at the lowest since May 31, nearly erasing the gains of June, with significant fluctuations previously, falling nearly 40% last Friday, falling 12% on Monday, rising nearly 23% on Tuesday, falling over 16% on Wednesday, rising over 14% on Thursday, and falling 1.4% on Friday, resulting in a cumulative increase of 1.7% for the week, falling over 12% on Monday of this week, and fluctuating to close down by 2% on Tuesday.

Among other stocks with significant changes, Trump Media (DJT) fell by over 14%, falling for five consecutive days to a two-month low, with the SEC approving the resale of some stocks and warrants, investors worried that additional shares will dilute the company's stock value, with the stock falling by 45% in more than half of June.

European stocks rebounded sharply, with technology and real estate sectors leading on Thursday. The pan-European Stoxx 600 closed up by 0.93%, recovering more than half of the losses since last Wednesday, with the Eurozone Stoxx 50 index rising by over 1%, further moving away from a four-month low. German, French, and Italian stock indices all rose by over 1%, the UK stock index rose by nearly 1%, and French stocks nearly recovered from the losses since last Thursday. Wafer manufacturer ASML led the Dutch stock index to a new high.U.S. Treasury yields were initially suppressed by economic data in the short term, then returned to an upward trend, breaking away from a ten-week low, with significant narrowing of gains by the end of the day.

The continuous weakness in U.S. economic data has led to market bets on two interest rate cuts within the year being higher than the Federal Reserve's outlook. U.S. Treasury yields plummeted in the short term after the release of economic data, then returned to an upward trend, with gains significantly narrowing by the end of the day.

The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to monetary policy, rose by up to 5 basis points to 4.75%, erasing most of the weekly decline, having previously approached the ten-week low since April 5, and ended the day up by 1.5 basis points. The 10-year benchmark Treasury yield rose by nearly 8 basis points to 4.29%, breaking away from the nearly two-and-a-half-month low since April 1 set last Friday, and ended the day with a gain of less than 3 basis points.

The 10-year German bund yield, a benchmark for the Eurozone, rose by nearly 3 basis points at the end of the day, continuing its two-month low. The 10-year French and Italian bond yields rose slightly, while the two-year French bond yield fell by more than 1 basis point, and the two-year Italian bond yield fell by more than 2 basis points. The spread between French and German bond yields remained at a multi-year high. UK bond yields fell after the Bank of England's decision, with the two-year yield once hitting a three-month low.

U.S. oil prices hit a seven-week high for three consecutive trading days, breaking through $82, with Brent crude approaching $86.

U.S. oil prices hit a seven-week high for three consecutive trading days. WTI crude oil futures for July rose by $0.60, a gain of more than 0.73%, to $82.17 per barrel. Brent crude oil futures for August rose by $0.64, a gain of more than 0.75%, to $85.71 per barrel.

The more actively traded U.S. oil, WTI, August futures, stood above $81, with the highest intraday gain of $0.80 or about 1%. International Brent crude hit its highest intraday gain of $0.89 or 1%, approaching $86, both hitting the highest since May 1. On Wednesday, U.S. financial markets were closed, but Brent crude had slightly fallen by 0.3%, temporarily detaching from the seven-week high.

Last week, the U.S. EIA commercial crude oil inventories decreased by nearly 2.55 million barrels, in line with expectations and a significant drop from the previous week's increase of over 3.7 million barrels. Both gasoline and distillate inventories fell instead of rising, and gasoline exports hit a seasonal historical high, all indicating favorable demand.

Oil prices are expected to rise for the second consecutive week, with U.S. oil up by 4% this week, and Brent crude potentially rising by more than 3%. J.P. Morgan predicts that Brent crude could rise to $90 per barrel in September due to tightening market supply from declining inventories and increased summer fuel demand. At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East has also raised oil prices in the short term due to concerns about supply disruptions.

The European benchmark TTF Dutch natural gas futures fell by more than 3%, nearly erasing the gains since Tuesday, and ICE UK futures also fell by 3%. U.S. natural gas July contracts fell by 5% and broke below $2.80, reaching a two-week low, with a year-to-date increase of nearly 13% and having set a six-month high. According to CCTV news, the EU has imposed a new round of sanctions on Russia, for the first time targeting liquefied natural gas.The US dollar hits a seven-week high, the euro nears a one-and-a-half-month low, the yen nears an eight-week low, and offshore yuan breaks below 7.29.

The US dollar rises, the British pound and Swiss franc fall, central banks are busy, and the euro nears a one-and-a-half-month low.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US dollar against six major currencies, rose by 0.4% and broke through 105.60, reaching a seven-week high since May 1st. The euro fell by 0.3% against the US dollar, approaching the 1.07 mark, having fallen to 1.0667 last Friday, a six-week low.

The British pound fell by 0.4% against the US dollar to 1.266, reaching a five-week low since mid-May, as analysts believe the Bank of England is close to cutting interest rates. After the central bank's interest rate cut, the Swiss franc moved away from a three-month high, and after the central bank maintained interest rates, the Norwegian krone rose to a five-month high against the euro.

The yen fell by 0.5% against the US dollar and attempted to approach 159, nearing an eight-week low since April 29th, when the Japanese government initiated a new round of foreign exchange market intervention, and the yen also hovered around a 34-year low. Offshore yuan fell by over 100 points against the US dollar and broke below 7.29 yuan, reaching a seven-month low.

Analysts say that over the past 10 days, currency market volatility has intensified, mainly due to political uncertainty in Europe and speculation about the timing of interest rate cuts by major central banks. The US economic data is mixed, and the Indian rupee fell to a record low of 83.5988 against the US dollar on Thursday.

Mainstream cryptocurrencies fell again, but the decline was narrower than in previous days. The largest cryptocurrency by market value, Bitcoin, fell slightly and continued to lose ground below $65,000, trading at a one-month low; the second-largest, Ethereum, fell by more than 1% and approached $3,500, nearing a four-week low.

Spot gold rose by more than 1%, once breaking through $2,360 to a two-week high, with metals rising in unison, and tin on the London Metal Exchange rising by more than 2%.

US economic data is weak, and the market maintains the expectation of two interest rate cuts within the year, which is beneficial for precious metals that do not provide a fixed yield. Uncertainty surrounding elections in various parts of the world and the escalation of conflicts in the Middle East both provide support for safe-haven assets.

COMEX gold futures for August rose by 1.07% to $2,372 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures for July rose by 3.99% to $30.74 per ounce.Spot gold rose more than $37 intraday or 1.6%, breaking through the psychological level of $2,360 at one point, setting a two-week high. Spot silver rose by up to 3.5%, breaking through the psychological level of $30, and continuously approaching $31.

Analysts say that when the United States really cuts interest rates, it will trigger a new round of gold price increases. ANZ analysts are optimistic about gold, believing that the target price at the end of 2024 will reach $2,500 per ounce, breaking the historical high.

London industrial base metal prices rose across the board. The economic barometer "Dr. Copper" closed up $72 or 0.7%, breaking through $9,800 to move away from a two-month low. London aluminum rose 0.9%, also moving away from a two-month low. London zinc and nickel rose slightly, London lead rose 0.8% and broke through $2,200, London nickel moved away from a ten-week low, and London tin rose by more than $700 or 2.2%, breaking through $33,000 to a one-week high.

The following is an earlier message from Wall Street Journal during the U.S. stock market session.

At 10 a.m. Eastern Time

Among the three major U.S. stock indexes, only the Dow Jones opened low, while the S&P 500 index opened at a new high and broke through the psychological level of 5,500 points. The Nasdaq also rose, with Nvidia rising 3.8% to a historical high, and its market value still ranking first among U.S. stocks and the world's listed companies.

At the beginning of the U.S. stock market, the main industry ETFs rose and fell differently, with the energy industry ETF and semiconductor ETF leading the gains. Most artificial intelligence concept stocks rose, with Dell rising more than 6%, Nvidia rising more than 3%, and the combined market value of Microsoft, Nvidia, and Apple's "three giants" breaking through $10 trillion.

At 10:30 a.m. Eastern Time

An hour after the opening, the technology stock-dominated Nasdaq 100 index turned down, led by AI concept stocks.

The Nasdaq 100 index fell as much as 0.3%, with component stocks Qualcomm falling more than 4%, Micron, ON Semiconductor, Applied Materials, Broadcom, and others falling as much as 2.7%, Tesla falling more than 1.3%, Apple and ASML ADR falling more than 1%, Nvidia rising more than 1.5%, AMD rising more than 5.1%. Among other chip stocks, Arm fell about 5.7% at one point.At 1:30 PM Eastern Time, during the US stock market's midday session, the decline in the US chip index continued to deepen. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell by more than 3%, with Nvidia dropping by 4%, causing its market value to fall below both Microsoft and Apple.

Chip stock Arm fell by more than 10.1%, the double long ETF for Nvidia fell by 8.5%, Micron Technology and Qualcomm fell by more than 6.7% at most, Broadcom fell by more than 4.3%, and Nvidia fell by more than 4.1% — during the trading session, its market value fell back below Microsoft and Apple. Intel, however, rose by 0.34%, ASM International ADR from the Netherlands rose by 2.7%, and AMD rose by 3.4%. Among AI concept stocks, C3.ai is currently down by 5.3%.