Prepare for Big Market Moves: Fed's Key Data and Forex Technical Outlook

On Tuesday (October 29th), the US dollar index remained largely stable in the Asian market, currently hovering around 104.35. Spot gold maintained its intraday rebound, with the gold price currently around $2754 per ounce. Investors will focus on the US job vacancy data for this trading day, which is expected to trigger significant market movements.

The US dollar slightly declined on Monday as investors took profits ahead of key data releases this week. The US dollar index (DXY), which tracks the dollar against six major currencies, fell by 0.07% to 104.31.

The US dollar index has risen by 3.6% so far in October, on track to record the largest monthly increase since April 2022. The recent strength in the dollar has been primarily driven by signs of a robust US economy.

At 22:00 Beijing time on Tuesday, the US September JOLTs job vacancy data will be released, with expectations of a decrease from 8.04 million in the previous month to 7.99 million.

The JOLTS job vacancy report is one of the labor market indicators that US Treasury Secretary Yellen valued the most when she was the Chair of the Federal Reserve. This indicator is also a highly watched labor market data by the Federal Reserve.

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Analysts have pointed out that if the job vacancy data is weaker than expected, it could undermine the dollar and push gold prices further higher.

During Tuesday's Asian trading session, the spot gold price once touched $2757.74 per ounce, close to the record high of $2758.45 per ounce set last Wednesday.

In addition to the job vacancy data, investors will also pay attention to US consumer confidence data. At 22:00 Beijing time on Tuesday, the US Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index for October will be announced, with expectations of rising from 98.7 to 99.3.Kshitij Consulting Services team writes on the trend of major currency pairs, and here are the main points of the article:

US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index failed to maintain its upward momentum above 104.50 and began to retreat from the high of 104.57, thereby negating the possibility mentioned yesterday of quickly reaching 105-105.50. Overall, the US Dollar Index remains bearish below 105-105.50, expected to fall towards 103-102.50. If there is another attempt to significantly rebound above 104.50, it will solidify our upward targets.

 

Euro/US Dollar

Euro/US Dollar reversed from the 1.0781 level. The recent trading range of 1.0775-1.0850/1.09 may be maintained for a while.

 

US Dollar/Japanese Yen and Euro/Japanese Yen

US Dollar/Japanese Yen and Euro/Japanese Yen fell from their highs of 153.88 and 166.07, respectively. Only if the current situation continues can these two currency pairs possibly fall to 150-148 and 164-162, respectively. Otherwise, the possibility of rebounding towards 154-155 and 168, respectively, cannot be completely ruled out. It is necessary to observe the price trend to see if the current decline will continue in the next few trading sessions.USD/CNY

The USD/CNY reached a high of 7.1346 yesterday. Another conference on stimulus measures is scheduled to take place from November 4th to 8th, which could map out a roadmap for the direction of the Chinese Yuan. The outlook for the Yuan may remain uncertain until further news on stimulus measures emerges. As long as it stays above 7.13, we retain our upward targets at 7.1436 and 7.1751. Meanwhile, if the exchange rate fails to maintain its current level, it may drag it down to 7.10 in the short term, or even lower.

AUD/USD

The AUD/USD continues to trade below 0.66, and if it does not rebound above 0.66 immediately, it may fall towards 0.65 in the short term. Keep a close eye on the price action near the current level to see if the decline will continue from here.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD continues to maintain stability within the range of 1.2900-1.3150, which could last for a while. After that, the exchange rate needs to achieve a decisive breakout towards either end of the range to clarify the direction for further movement.