Nasdaq Hits 7-Day High; Nvidia Tops Global Market Cap; Apple, Microsoft Dip; Oil at 7-Week Peak

Economic data indicates that industrial output figures have exceeded expectations, but U.S. retail sales data have fallen short. Data reveals that retail sales in the U.S. saw almost no growth in May, with previous months' sales figures being revised downward, suggesting that consumers are facing increased financial pressure. Economists anticipate that, given ongoing inflation, a cooling job market, and signs of financial stress, Americans will exercise more caution, leading to a moderate pace in future spending.

The weak U.S. retail sales data have fueled expectations for interest rate cuts. The CME FedWatch Tool shows that the possibility of a 25 basis point rate cut in September has risen from 62% yesterday to 68%, with the market still anticipating two rate cuts this year. Following the release of the U.S. retail data, the U.S. bond market fell across the board, further declining to a daily low after a strong auction of the 20-year U.S. Treasury bond. The U.S. dollar index dropped briefly, while the Swiss franc and the Australian dollar stood out among the G10 currencies, the latter benefiting from hawkish remarks from the Reserve Bank of Australia. Spot gold prices experienced a slight lift.

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At the close of the U.S. stock market, all major indices rose slightly, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite reaching new highs. Nvidia's market value surpassed Microsoft's to become the largest globally, but star tech stocks普遍下跌, with all of the U.S. stock market's "Seven Sisters" except Nvidia suffering losses, with Apple, Meta, Google, and Tesla all falling over 1%. The S&P financial and technology sectors led the gains, while the communication services, non-essential consumer goods, and materials sectors saw slight declines. Due to escalating tensions in the Middle East, oil prices rose by over 1% to a seven-week high.

Several Federal Reserve officials have urged patience on rate cuts, emphasizing the need to see more data indicating a cooling of inflation before cutting rates, with two policymakers providing a timeline hint. Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler stated that a rate cut might be appropriate "later this year" if economic development proceeds as expected. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem, in his first major policy speech since taking office, said that it might take observing several quarters to obtain data supporting a rate cut. The密集发言 of Federal Reserve officials did not significantly impact the market, as their views are largely in line with Chairman Powell's stance.

Internationally, Germany's ZEW Economic Sentiment Index rose to 47.5, the highest value since February 2022, but below the expected 50. The current economic situation did not meet market expectations for improvement, and with published data not reaching forecasted values, market optimism was not significantly boosted. At the same time, media opinion polls show that more economists expect the European Central Bank to cut rates in September and December, with 64 out of 81 currently predicting a rate cut, compared to 41 out of 66 previously. Additionally, ECB Governing Council member Klaas Knot warned that inflation could rise again, and therefore, it is premature to conclude on future interest rate changes.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, Wednesday is Juneteenth in the United States, and U.S. markets will be closed, with only the release of the U.S. June NAHB Housing Market Index.

S&P and Nasdaq Reach New Highs, Nvidia Leads Chip Stocks for Two Days, Surpassing Microsoft in Market Value

On Wednesday, June 5th, U.S. stock indices saw a slight increase across the board, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 reaching new highs, with the S&P 500 showing the largest gain.

At the final close, the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Nasdaq 100 all hit historical highs, with the Russell 2000 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both closing higher:

The Nasdaq Composite closed up 5.21 points, a gain of 0.03%, marking the seventh consecutive day of setting a new closing high. The S&P 500 Index closed up 13.80 points, a gain of 0.25%, marking the second consecutive trading day of setting a new closing high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 56.76 points, a gain of 0.15%.The more actively traded US oil WTI August futures surpassed the psychological integer of $80, with the highest increase of $1.12 or 1.4% during the session. International Brent crude oil rose by up to $1.19 or 1.4%, breaking through the $85 mark to reach the highest level in seven weeks since May 1st.

Additionally, US natural gas futures closed up by 4.34%, at $2.9090 per million British thermal units.

The US dollar slightly declined, while the euro rose for two consecutive days, and the Japanese yen once fell below 158, with Bitcoin falling by 3% and losing the $65,000 mark.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures a basket of six major currencies, fell by 0.2% to 105.12 after poor retail sales data, but the losses significantly narrowed during the US stock market session, returning to around 105.30, still not far from the six-week high since May 1st.

The euro rose against the US dollar for two consecutive days, with a 0.3% increase to 1.0762 on Tuesday, having previously fallen below 1.07 last Friday, marking the lowest since May 1st, with a nearly 1% drop for the euro last week, the largest in two months. The British pound traded around the 1.27 mark, not far from a four-week low.

Analysts suggest that the euro's stabilization is due to the French far-right party expressing willingness to cooperate with French President Macron, alleviating concerns about a French exit from the EU and the disintegration of the Eurozone, and also reducing market concerns about France's own fiscal policy. The US dollar fell to a three-month low against the safe-haven Swiss franc since mid-March.

The Japanese yen fell by 0.3% against the US dollar and temporarily fell below 158, approaching the six-week low of 158.26 set last Friday, and trading near a 34-year low. The offshore Chinese yuan remained at 7.27 yuan against the US dollar, with a 0.1% drop during the session, but essentially recovering the loss. The Reserve Bank of Australia maintained its interest rate policy unchanged, and the Australian dollar's gain against the US dollar expanded to 0.6%, with the market expecting the Reserve Bank of Australia to start cutting interest rates in the fourth quarter.

Mainstream cryptocurrencies have been falling for several consecutive days. The largest by market capitalization, Bitcoin, fell by 3% and lost the $65,000 mark for the first time in a month; the second-largest, Ethereum, also fell by 3% and approached $3,400, reaching a four-week low. Dogecoin fell by 11% at one point.

Expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have increased, and the willingness of global central banks to increase gold holdings has reached a five-year high, with gold prices rising.

The COMEX August gold futures rose by about 0.67% to $2,344.6 per ounce, and the COMEX July silver futures rose by about 0.75% to $29.610 per ounce.After the release of U.S. retail data, spot gold experienced a slight short-term lift. Spot gold rose by a maximum of $23 or 1%, breaking through $2,330. Spot silver saw a maximum increase of 2.2%.

Analysis indicates that weak retail sales data reinforced expectations for interest rate cuts, with the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields falling, providing upward momentum for gold prices. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing gold. Additionally, the World Gold Council's annual survey of central banks revealed a pessimistic outlook on the U.S. dollar, with a five-year high in global central banks' willingness to increase gold holdings this year.

Furthermore, Goldman Sachs analysts Daan Struyven and Lina Thomas released a report on Tuesday, stating that long positions in gold can hedge against inflation risks, recommending gold as a tool to guard against inflation during the U.S. election period. Gold offers the best protection against extremely high inflation caused by central bank credibility loss and geopolitical supply shocks. Due to robust demand from emerging market central banks and Asian households, the base scenario is that gold prices will rise to $2,700 per ounce by the end of the year.

London's base metals experienced mixed gains and losses:

The economic barometer "Dr. Copper" closed slightly higher by $6, at $9,672 per ton. London aluminum fell by $15, to $2,486 per ton. London zinc rose by $22, to $2,838 per ton. London lead increased by $36, nearly a 1.67% gain, to $2,192 per ton. London tin fell by $4, to $32,144 per ton.

Reports indicate that copper production at Anglo American's Chilean Los Bronces mine is expected to decline by 30% by 2025. Additionally, the weekly futures and options position report from the London Metal Exchange (LME) shows that speculators' net long positions in LME aluminum decreased by 4,272 contracts to 129,167 contracts, hitting an 11-week low.